Hypothetical Football Monday

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Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby edavis3 on Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:16 am

IF...we win out, does Chuck get one more year?

I think the damage is already done, but I'd rather have a football debate than political. Happy Monday.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby txlonghorn47 on Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:35 am

I'm in the no camp. As I've said several times the entire original staff, less BJM whose unit may be the worst on the team currently, has been fired. That's on the head man. It's time to make a move.

It really doesn't matter though because there is no chance we win out. In fact I fully expect us to find a way to lose in Lubbock Saturday.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby LMQueen on Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:25 am

I think IF he won out, they would keep him. He seems to have the support of the AD.

I don't think it is possible he wins out, my guess is we go 2-2 from here, with the real possibility of 1-3. Hope they prove me wrong.


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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby Drew Corleone on Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:39 am

Firing an 8-4 coach (who could then potentially be 9-4) would look bad. I have been operating under the assumption that he needed 8 wins to keep his job.

All things equal I am firmly now in the "move on" camp, despite what happens. I think the overall poor game planning, lack of on-field discipline, and head-scratching in-game decisions are items that will not improve no matter whether or not the talent does. I really think Charlie would have lost a game or two even with the 05 team at his disposal, because of some bone-headed thing.

But like Robbi said, I think 6-6 is about our best case scenario. Maybe we go into Lubbock and win, but I am not counting on it. I think we can take TCU at home. We should handle Kansas on the road.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby HornMafia on Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:33 am

I don't want to make a move just to make a move. There isn't a home run candidate out there right now, especially if Houston gets reamed by Louisville in a couple weeks.

So if he wins out, yes.

But I think we all know that is very unlikely.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby 12ozLongneck on Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:01 am

HornMafia wrote:I don't want to make a move just to make a move. There isn't a home run candidate out there right now, especially if Houston gets reamed by Louisville in a couple weeks.

So if he wins out, yes.

But I think we all know that is very unlikely.

I would say the exact opposite of this. As explained very well by Drew, Strong's tendencies and body of work here show he probably isn't going to get it done, so let's try someone else. When is there going to be a "home run candidate" out there? Saban/Harbaugh/Meyer aren't walking through the door. Who would you consider a home run candidate?

The hypothetical of Houston getting rolled over by Louisville doesn't really matter to me. Mack beat Florida State exactly zero times while at North Carolina and he did OK here.

As to the question posed in the original post, if I was King Of The World he's gone regardless of what he does. I think he's still here in 2017 if he does win out though.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby txlonghorn47 on Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:40 am

I'm with Kevin. The HR hire doesn't exist, there is risk involved in any hire.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby HornMafia on Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:22 pm

So if he goes 8-4, you are going to fire him to hire someone that went 8-4 at Houston or North Carolina or 6-6 at SMU?
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby txlonghorn47 on Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:14 pm

No I'm going to consider the whole body of work, not just one season.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby eochs on Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:25 pm

I heard Frazier is a big fan of:

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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby 12ozLongneck on Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:32 pm

It's Miles!
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby Makaveli on Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:04 pm

I think they keep him if they win out. I'm very confident in this for reasons given previously by LMQueen.

I also think there's a decent chance that happens, perhaps 15-17% or so.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby UTwiz on Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:25 pm

We will never be an elite team under Strong, this is very obvious. Thus, I see no reason to bring him back, even if he catches lightening in a bottle. This is a terrible Big 12 conference, and he has a talent advantage over the final four teams. What should be a lay up to a competent coach/staff should not be viewed as above and beyond to a poor coach/staff. Pick a Mack Brown staff, they are in the thick of the conference title with this roster.

I do agree that Fenves isn't firing the first AA coach in program history if he wins 8 overall and improves three games in the W/L column. It would set this program back another five years (since they'd have to give him an extension due to recruiting), so I assume everyone who cares about this program's health over the next half decade knows which way we need this thing to end up.

Under normal circumstances, 2-2 is the most likely result. But we get the middle bingo space of Kansas as one road game, and Tech (perhaps minus Mahomes) at 11am and probably shooting their wad in an OT win last Saturday. WV is going to be tough, but they might be still sulking about being discarded from playoffs, and it's at home. TCU is a pretty bad team that absolutely has no business staying within a couple TDs at our place.

I could certainly see 3-1 here with a little luck, and if it is spread out to go W/L/W/W, it is going to get interesting. If the loss is to a good team, I can see a two week winning streak to close the season (against trash horse teams) providing enough political cover to bring him back. Which takes us back to the please sweet baby Jesus with golden fleece diaper, no.

Tech is the key game. If Strong somehow manages to get out of the way and we win this weekend, a lot of (short sighted) people will talk themselves back into giving him another year (which actually will turn into three to four more years with extension). And a WV loss won't be enough for them to come off that position. Which is pathetic, considering that going 3-1 down the stretch means Texas went 7-5 in year three, Strong is still under .500 for his tenure, and gets rewarded with more years.

And we lose out on Herman.

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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby txlonghorn47 on Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:59 pm

Thanks for that, I won't be able to sleep now
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby HornMafia on Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:06 pm

UTwiz wrote:I do agree that Fenves isn't firing the first AA coach in program history if he wins 8 overall and improves three games in the W/L column. It would set this program back another five years (since they'd have to give him an extension due to recruiting), so I assume everyone who cares about this program's health over the next half decade knows which way we need this thing to end up.


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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby UTwiz on Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:29 pm

HornMafia wrote:
UTwiz wrote:I do agree that Fenves isn't firing the first AA coach in program history if he wins 8 overall and improves three games in the W/L column. It would set this program back another five years (since they'd have to give him an extension due to recruiting), so I assume everyone who cares about this program's health over the next half decade knows which way we need this thing to end up.


I'm sorry Texas wins disappoint you so much.


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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby txlonghorn47 on Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:52 am

I'm willing to sit through a few losses not to have to go through this again next year. I feel like the team has regressed the last two years. All we've heard is we are a QB away from being good. Well we have a QB and are most likely going 6-6 or 7-5, and against a much weaker schedule than the last two years. Nothing has changed. I know everybody is excited about beating Baylor, me included, but are you going to be shocked if Baylor loses 4 of their next 5? I wouldn't be. Strong himself said last week whoever coaches this team next year should win 10 games. So if you bring him back and we lose 2-3 by mid season, which I fully believe we would under Strongs management, then you're right back in this same situation again having a year twirling in turmoil.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby 12ozLongneck on Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:07 am

But we have to wait until there is a coach who has gone at least four straight seasons at a power 5 school without losing a game who has stated on the record at a press conference that he wants to come to UT before we can let Charlie go.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby tamut98 on Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:11 am

UTwiz wrote:
HornMafia wrote:
I'm sorry Texas wins disappoint you so much.


They don't disappoint me. They surprise me. And that's the problem.


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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby HornMafia on Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:46 am

And I don't want to make a change just to make a change (which you would be doing at 8-4), go out and hire someone with big risk (who let's face it Tom Herman even fits under that category now) only to end up right back here in 2-3 years.

I would rather ride another year with Charlie (who would bring in another solid recruiting class) and hope someone better establishes themselves this time next year than end up there.

This is more about losing confidence in Herman over the last month than gaining confidence in Charlie. It has aways been Herman or bust for me, the other potential candidates don't do much for me.

Now at 6-6 or worse all bets are off, of course, which I think we all expect us to end up.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby txlonghorn47 on Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:57 am

So if Herman beats Lousiville and goes 10-2 you're back on board? That would be 21-3 in two years with wins over what will probably end the season being two Top 15 teams this year and a NY6 win over FSU last year. I just don't get the complete roller coaster of that.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby HornMafia on Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:32 am

That would be better than losing to Navy, needing officiating help on the last drive to beat Tulsa, losing to a woeful SMU and needing a big comeback over UCF, yes.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby UTwiz on Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:59 am

HornMafia wrote:And I don't want to make a change just to make a change (which you would be doing at 8-4), go out and hire someone with big risk (who let's face it Tom Herman even fits under that category now) only to end up right back here in 2-3 years.

I would rather ride another year with Charlie (who would bring in another solid recruiting class) and hope someone better establishes themselves this time next year than end up there.

This is more about losing confidence in Herman over the last month than gaining confidence in Charlie. It has aways been Herman or bust for me, the other potential candidates don't do much for me.

Now at 6-6 or worse all bets are off, of course, which I think we all expect us to end up.


A few thoughts:

- if Strong is retained, it is going to require giving him an extension. That alone should be a deal breaker.

- the recruiting class Strong produces at 7-5 or 8-4 will be AT LEAST on par with what a new hire would bring in if the transition happens before dead period. And a recruiting class under a new coach has a higher ceiling than a class with a coach who barely kept his job and is one bad performance away in 2017 of being canned.

- what specifically have you seen to make you lose confidence in Herman? Surely you aren't going to base this on a small sample of W/L column results. So let's get technical. Xs and Os. Schemes. Game management. What worries you about Tom Herman's coaching acumen and skill set applied to the talent and resources at Texas?

(Whoops. Just saw your last post about Herman. You actually ARE basing it on a short sample size of results that have multiple layers of variables. That isn't how the executives that will make this hire will approach this, and I don't understand why some fans choose to continue to view it through this prism.)
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby HornMafia on Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:41 am

UTwiz wrote:(Whoops. Just saw your last post about Herman. You actually ARE basing it on a short sample size of results that have multiple layers of variables. That isn't how the executives that will make this hire will approach this, and I don't understand why some fans choose to continue to view it through this prism.)


Gee. Like that is a new concept around here.
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Re: Hypothetical Football Monday

Postby UTwiz on Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:44 am

Wut
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